we mark up the chart, so you don't have to
WhyTick pins the news to the exact minute Polymarket and Kalshi odds moved, and says plainly when nothing explains it.
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US x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 15?
how it works
Every alert goes through the same three marks on the timeline. Here's the Oct 19 ceasefire move, step by step (example).
1:10pm ET · detected
We read Polymarket and Kalshi prices at 5-minute detail. Big moves are confirmed against the venue's own price history; blips and back-and-forth wicks are merged or dropped.
39% → 59.5% between 1:10pm and 6pm ET, on 5-min prices.
then · explained
We line the move up with time-stamped reports. A headline only counts if it came before the odds moved. If nothing fits, we say so: "real move, no headline found yet", or "likely noise" when the price itself points that way.
Illustrative: a report time-stamped after 1:10pm can't be the trigger, so it wouldn't count.
later · checked
Later, we look at the price again. If we said "just noise", it should have drifted back. If we said it was a real move, it should have stuck. Misses get published too.
See Were we right? below.
in the margin
No terminal and no jargon. Just what moved, when, and what the news did or didn't say.
When the implied probability shifts sharply, you get the move and the report most likely behind it.
If nothing explains a move, we say so instead of guessing: a real move with no headline yet, or likely noise.
A fresh headline matched to related markets that haven't moved yet. A link, not a prediction.
When Polymarket and Kalshi price the same question 8+ points apart, with real volume on both, we flag it with any rule differences.
8am and 6pm ET: the biggest moves and why, free on X.
Every week we check our alerts against the price and post the results. Misses included.
the free brief
A short thread at 8am and 6pm ET (New York time). Here's the format, filled in with real prices from Oct 19 and our own notes in red.
Example · Oct 19, 2026
📊 Why it moved: Mon Oct 19, evening edition. Polymarket moves since 8am. Times are ET. 🧵
US x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 15?
39% → 59.5% from 1:10pm to 6pm, a rebound after a flash crash (60.5% → 22.5% between 11:50am and 12:05pm). The market implies 59.5% at 6pm.
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
39% → 14.5% (3:45–4:25pm), then 16.5% → 38% by 4:55pm. No headline found. Likely noise: it keeps going back and forth. The market implies 33.5% at 6pm.
👀 Not yet priced? Illustrative
When a fresh, time-stamped headline touches a market whose odds haven't moved yet, this slot links the two and shows the market's current price. A link, not a prediction. (Format only: no real headline shown.)
Odds are what the market implies, not a forecast. Information only, not betting or investment advice.
the scorecard
Every alert we publish gets checked later. If we said "just noise", the price should drift back. If we said it was a real move, it should stick. We post the results every week, misses included.
France declares a state of siege by Dec 31, 2026? jumped 2.5% → 50.5% (Sun Oct 18, 10:40am ET). We'd have said: likely noise. A day later the price had drifted back, to 3.9%. Right: it was just noise.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through Oct 24? jumped 29.5% → 88.5% (Mon Oct 19, 4:00pm ET). We'd have said: real move, no headline found yet. 6 hours later it was still up, at 87.5%. Right: the move stuck.
Iran coup attempt by Dec 31, 2027? dropped 55% → 29% (Sun Oct 18, 3:55am ET). We'd have said: real move, no headline found yet. A day later it was still down, at 24.5%. Right: the move stuck.
Bank of Canada holds rates in October? dropped 69.5% → 28% (Mon Oct 19, 4:50pm ET). We'd have said: real move, no headline found yet. 6 hours later it was still down, at 28.5%. Right: the move stuck.
NATO x Russia military clash by Dec 31, 2026? jumped 22.5% → 32.5% (Sat Oct 17, 3:40pm ET). We'd have said: real move, no headline found yet. A day later the price had drifted back, to 25.5%. Wrong: it faded, so it was probably noise.
Full replay of our current rule: all 127 moves the engine flagged from Thu Oct 15, 11:20am to Tue Oct 20, 11:20am ET, across the 333 Polymarket and Kalshi markets that pass its filters: 90 right, 34 wrong, 3 too early to tell. A replay, not published calls, and we didn't check the news. We'll show an overall score once there are enough real calls to be fair.
polymarket vs kalshi
When the same question trades on both, we draw both lines. We only flag a gap of 8+ points, with real volume and tight books on each side.
Biggest raw gap that morning: 9.6 pts (Roberto Cidade, Amazonas governor, 1.4% vs 11.0%). We held it back: Kalshi's book was empty and neither side had traded in 24h. Many state races wait for review because Kalshi settles about 61 days after Polymarket.
pricing
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The brief
The twice-daily "why it moved" thread.
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questions
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No. We describe what the market implies and what the news says. We don't give tips or picks, and we never tell you to buy or sell anything.
We line up the exact time of the move with time-stamped news reports. A report counts only if it came before the odds moved. If nothing fits, we say so rather than guess: "real move, no headline found yet", or "likely noise" when the price itself points that way.
A fresh headline that looks relevant to a market whose odds haven't moved yet. It's a link between news and a market, not a prediction that the market will move.
Sometimes Polymarket and Kalshi list the same question at different prices. We flag gaps of 8 points or more when both sides have real volume and tight order books. Rules and resolution dates can differ between venues, so we show them next to the flag.
We look at the price again later. If we said "just noise", the price should drift back. If we said it was a real move, with or without a headline, it should stick. If we said news wasn't in the price yet, the price should move. If Polymarket and Kalshi disagreed, the gap should close. Every alert goes in the weekly results, misses included. The price decides, not us.
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